Escape to Marine Air

I've heard there have been a few storms in northern Utah, but we escaped on the 1st of the month to the blissfully cool and moist air of Ketchikan, Alaska.  I haven't seen a temperature above 64°F since arriving and the sky has mostly been cloud covered.  You know, proper hiking weather.  

Few things top the 4th of July in Ketchikan.  You haven't really lived until you've experienced the parade here.

And the flying of the flag by heli to open the festivities remains one of my favorite traditions.

I'm not a good fisherman, but fortunately my wife's cousin is.  He led us to victory this morning.   

It's raining now.  No complaints.

A Pulse of Monsoon Moisture

There will be a subtle change in the weather this week as a bit of monsoon moisture streams up into Utah.  

I hesitate to call it a monsoon surge as it's not a strong one.  We'll call it a pulse.

The GFS forecast valid at 1800 UTC 2 July (1200 MDT Wednesday) shows the key players and features.  The first is is a weak, slow moving trough in the westerlies over California (L in the upper-left panel).   The second is what is known as an easterly wave that is moving slowly westward and best evident at 700 mb (dashed line lower-left panel) and is contributing to the development of Tropical Storm Flossie, that is expected to be a hurricane by this forecast time (red L in lower-left and upper-right panels).  

The phasing of these features leads to a narrow plume of high integrated vapor transport (red arrow lower-right panel) that extends from Flossie, up the Gulf of California, and up the lower Colorado River Basin into Nevada and Utah.  

As a result, northern Utah will see an increase in convective clouds, especially in the afternoon, through Wednesday, with some isolated to scattered thunderstorms that will probably be most prevalent in upper-elevation areas such as the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains.  The potential for isolated to scattered T-storms may remain until the 4th of July depending on how things play out.  Monitor forecasts, consider an early start for upper-elevation hikes and bikes, and get off high peaks and ridges if conditions warrant.  As the saying goes, when thunder roars, head indoors, or at least into a vehicle if you are in the open and one is nearby. 

One concern from this pattern is the potential for natural fire starts from lightning.  Let's hope that doesn't materialize and that everyone plays safe with fireworks.  It's a tinderbox out there. 

Cuts to NOAA, NASA, NSF, Etc.

The budget cuts currently being considered by the US congress would have devastating impacts on American science and STEM workforce development, including the atmospheric and related sciences.  They are not surgical.  They will seriously impede American science and the education of students in science and engineering.  

I have reproduced below an e-mail that I received yesterday from the leadership of the American Meteorological Society summarizing these cuts and their related impacts.  Links are provided if you are interested in contacting your Senator.  

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Thank you to everyone who has taken action by reaching out to members of Congress and sharing your perspectives on the critical importance of the weather, water, and climate enterprise to our nation and the federal government's foundational role. The weather enterprise keeps all citizens prepared for hazardous extreme events and helps to grow our economy, providing a great return on investment.    The budget discussions in Congress continue, with many items yet to be decided. Please join us in continuing to share your concerns with decision makers!     We have great stories to tell about the value of our enterprise and the transformational work being done in government laboratories, private sector companies, and universities. In mid-May, AMS Presidents (Stensrud, Sealls, Bamzai, and Colman) visited Congress, and more visits are planned for this summer. Many past AMS presidents and AMS members also have met with their elected officials, so know that you are not alone in your outreach efforts (AGU, AAAS, AIP, and Sigma Xi, and many other science societies are also encouraging member outreach). Indeed, collectively, we are doing our best to change the current budget trajectory.     If there ever were a time to stand for science — and meteorological and related sciences in particular — this is it. Thank you for being an Upstander for Science!

It is challenging to keep abreast of deliberations on the Hill and all the moving parts, so below are reminders on current proposed budget items related to the weather, water, and climate enterprise and science in general. The House passed its version of the FY2026 budget in May, and the Senate is currently writing its version. The Senate is using a process called "Reconciliation" to pass their version of the FY2026 budget, which only requires a simple majority to pass. If the House approves the Senate's Reconciliation bill and President Trump signs it, it will become the law. At that point, the appropriations process would proceed to determine the annual funding levels for the agencies using the budget numbers specified through the Reconciliation process. Current proposals (see also the AIP Budget Tracker) include a: 28% cut to NOAA, prioritizing funding for NWS while dissolving NOAA Research that includes funding for NOAA laboratories, cooperative institutes, and extramural projects to academia. This would dramatically slow down forecast model development, reduce observations and monitoring, and lead to the termination of NOAA-University partnerships. All in all, this bodes an uncertain future for weather radar and satellites, as well as a decline in weather forecast accuracy, with downstream impacts on costs related to energy, transportation, and agriculture.  47% reduction in NASA science and terminating support for the Orbiting Carbon Observatories, and the Terra, Aqua, and Aura satellites. Terra, Aqua, and Aura have been operating for decades and their observations are assimilated into forecast models as well as used to monitor droughts, dust, and air quality. The Atmosphere Observing System, and Surface Biology and Geology missions would also be terminated.  56% cut to NSF which supports university research (including graduate students) and NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This would lead to greatly reduced university-led research, decline in graduate students that eventually constitute the next-generation of scientists in the field and a dramatic reduction in capabilities at NSF NCAR used by our community.  39% cut to USGS science, including the elimination of the ecosystem mission area, and a 14% cut for DOE Office of Science, both of which directly impact federal-university partnerships in earth and environmental sciences, as well as capabilities in national labs and atmospheric science research productivity.

To find your Congressional Representative or Senator you can use these resources: Find Your Representative Find Your Senator Encourage your family and friends to reach out as well to amplify your collective impact!   If you have been affected by federal changes so far, you can find AMS resources here that may assist you.    Sincerely,    David Stensrud, AMS President 2025 Alan Sealls, Incoming President 2026 Anjuli Bamzai, Past President 2024 Brad Colman, Past President 2023

The Heat Is Back On

Our brief run of below average temperatures will probably end today (Thursday, June 26) after five wonderfully cool days, including Sunday, June 22nd when we only reached 65.  The hiking that day was wonderfully cool, especially in the morning.  No complaints about wet brush, which we encountered a lot of, as it was nice to enjoy the cool, moist air.

The National Weather Service is forecasting a high of 93 for the Satl Lake City Airport today, which will push us back above average. Highs in the 90s look to continue for the forseeable future.  Sigh...

About the June Warmth

I hope you are enjoying this weekend's pleasant temperatures.  It was great to open the house up this morning and let the 50-something air pour in.  

I thought it would be interesting to take a peek at some stats from the first 2/3 of June.

The average temperature for the first 20 days of June was 76.4°F, which rates as the 2nd highest on record.  Additionally, there has been no measurable precipitation at the airport since May 18th.  Basically a worst-case scenario for drying in the early part of summer. 

Then we hit 104 on Thursday, which rates as the fourth highest temperature recorded at the airport prior to June 30.  

Combined with wind and low humidity, Thursday (and to a decent degree Friday) brought "hair dryer" conditions to Salt Lake City, with dangerous fire weather conditions across most of Utah, including southwest Utah where the Forsyth and France Canyon fires are raging.  Per the Salt Lake Tribune, as of Friday afternoon the latter has sadly destroyed 12 structures, including primary and secondary homes. 

This has the chance to be a summer with extreme fire intensities, especially in southern Utah where snow was scant this past winter.  Let's be careful out there.  

It's a Trough!

It will take a while to get here, but a bonafide trough will be coming to Utah for the weekend.

Before that, we're going to be in the so-called warm-before-the-storm (in this case a dry frontal passage with dust) with a ridge building over Utah today.

The ridge will be followed by the development of warm southwesterly flow ahead of the trough later in the week, as illustrated by the GFS forecast below for 0000 UTC 21 June (6 PM MDT Friday).

Although yesterday's high was "only" 87 and this morning was pleasant, our July like weather returns for the rest of the work week with NWS forecast highs for the Salt Lake City airport of 92 today, 102 Thursday, and 96 on Friday.  Critical fire weather conditions will be in place for much of this period.

Saturday is a transition day with the front forecast to be moving over northern Utah at 0000 UTC 22 June (6 PM MDT Saturday).  

Depending on your location and exposure, this looks like a recipe for dust Friday and Saturday in both the pre-frontal environment and the post-frontal environment.  Salt Lake City could see some wind-blown pre-frontal dust from origins to the south and southwest ahead of the front and then from the exposed Great Salt Lake once the front is through.  Good times.  

Once the dust has settled (pun intended), Sunday looks very pleasant with valley highs in the mid 70s.  It looks like a good day for a hike, but bring a couple of layers if you are going to higher elevations. Our GFS-derived forecast guidance for Little Cottonwood is calling for 34F at Alta-Collins (9600 ft) and 31F on Mt. Baldy (11,000 ft) at 9 AM and afternoon temps in the high 40s and high 30s, respectively.